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Numerical weather prediction wind correction methods and its impact on computational fluid dynamics based wind power forecasting

机译:数值天气预报风校正方法及其对基于风动力预报的计算流体力学的影响

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摘要

Numerical weather prediction (NWP) of wind speed (WS) is an important input to wind power forecasting (WPF), which its accuracy will limit the WPF performance. This paper proposes three NWP correcting methods based on the multiple linear regression, a radial basis function neural network, and an Elman neural network. The proposed correction methods exhibit small sample learning and efficient computational ability. So, they are in favour of forecasting the performance of planned large-scale wind farms. To this end, a physical WPF model based on computational fluid dynamics is used to demonstrate the impact of improving the NWP WS data based forecasting. A certain wind farm located in China is selected as the case study, and the measured and NWP WS forecasts before and after correction are taken as inputs to the WPF model. Results show that all three correction methods improve the precision of the NWP WS forecasts, with the nonlinear correction models performing a little better than the linear one. Compared with the original NWP, the three corrected NWP WS have higher annual, single point, and short-term prediction accuracy. As expected, the accuracy of wind power forecasting will increase with the accuracy of the input NWP WS forecast. Moreover, the WS correction enhances the consistency of error variation trends between input WS and output wind power. The proposed WS correction methods greatly improve the accuracy of both original NWP WS and the WPF derived from them.
机译:风速(WS)的数字天气预报(NWP)是风电预测(WPF)的重要输入,其准确性将限制WPF的性能。本文提出了基于多元线性回归,径向基函数神经网络和艾尔曼神经网络的三种NWP校正方法。所提出的校正方法展现出小的样本学习和有效的计算能力。因此,他们赞成对计划中的大型风电场的性能进行预测。为此,使用基于计算流体动力学的物理WPF模型来演示改进基于NWP WS数据的预测的影响。选择中国某风电场作为案例研究,并将校正前后的实测和NWP WS预测作为WPF模型的输入。结果表明,所有三种校正方法都可以提高NWP WS预测的精度,其中非线性校正模型的性能要好于线性校正模型。与原始NWP相比,三个校正的NWP WS具有更高的年,单点和短期预测精度。正如预期的那样,风电功率预测的准确性将随着输入NWP WS预测的准确性而增加。此外,WS校正可增强输入WS与输出风力之间的误差变化趋势的一致性。提出的WS校正方法极大地提高了原始NWP WS以及从中得出的WPF的准确性。

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